Studies of Economic Change

Scenario until 2050

On the one hand it can be stated that in the case of political passivity the retirement pays have to be decreased and the retirement age has to be increased substantially. Under these circumstances the labour force participation is expected to decrease by 7% from 49% to 42% until 2050.

On the other hand it can also be stated that the maximum possible labour force participation is expected to decrease by 7% from 57% to 50% until 2050. Therefore the labour force participation of 50% at the end of the forecasted period exceeds the figure for Germany at the beginning by about 1%.

(Only by increasing the labour force participation of the 15 to 64 year olds.)

This means the following:

The retirement pays are secure because the relation of the workforce to the total population as the essential criteria to maintain the social welfare system can be kept at the same level.

The alternative of political passivity of the government leads at first to the decrease of the unemployment rate. But only this adoption does not suffice to solve the social and economic problems of the aging population.

Additional measures to increase the labour force participation are necessary. For example:

• Accelerating and reducing the time of the education (school, university, occupational training, etc.) to decrease the age of youn people for the career entry.
• Expansion of child-care services to improve the compatibility of family and work. Related to that is the increase of the labour force participation of women.
• Mobilisation of the age group of the 55 to 64 year olds for the labour marked as it is absurd that today even the 50 year olds are considered as too old by many employers.
• Supporting of further education at work as a compensation for the reduction of the educational period and as adoption to the accelerating technical development.